Summer is generally considered to be the dry spell of American politics. When there aren't major elections to occupy your attention, there isn't a whole lot going on for political observers like myself. In spite of this, I thought I'd take some time to discuss what I consider to be the most interesting narratives that have come about since the 2012 elections. When I say most interesting, I don't mean most important or most pressing. There are important issues that are being dealt with right now, such as the immigration reform fight and looming fiscal fights in Congress, but there's more going on than just the most immediate battles. So without further ado:
1. 2016 Gossip is Hot and Thriving
General tradition dictates that most media outlets, political commentators and talking heads don't really start talking about the next presidential election until about the day after the midterm elections. However, despite the 2014 election still over a year away, the political gossip is already working full throttle when it comes to 2016. While hardly anything is definite at this point, there is still talk over who has national ambitions and how current events will shape the 2016 fights. In my experience, when media pundits or political commentators talk about a person who seemingly has aspirations for higher office, whatever they're doing is often framed at least partially in a "How will this affect them in 2016?" kind of context. For example, the recent feud between NJ Governor Chris Christie and Kentucky Senator Rand Paul (both Republicans considered to have 2016 aspirations) was almost always approached as a fight that will manifest on a primary debate stage. There's also the question of how the Benghazi issue might affect a potential Hillary Clinton re-attempt for the nomination/White House. Once you throw in the other seemingly aspiring political characters such as Wisconsin Congressman Paul Ryan and Florida Senator Marco Rubio, it can be fun to talk about things that these people do as indications of what's in store for the future. The whole 2016 context might be appealing because of the gossipy nature of discussion right now, but it might be a more worthwhile discussion to have once there is some more definite information on who is considering running for their party nominations.
2. There is a serious divide in the Republican Party
While most in the conservative media will say that everything's fine, from where I'm standing there definitely appears to be a divide between Tea Party far-right Republicans and the more moderate establishment. The Tea Party types attack the establishment for not being conservative enough, while the establishment is stuck fighting for their political lives against not only Democratic challengers, but also against much more conservative Tea Party-based challengers from the right. The divide can also be seen in messaging conflicts and the paradox between primary and general election battlefields. Whether it's the Obamacare funding infighting, immigration reform wavering or general lack of cohesion on pressing issues, the national Republican brand has yet to establish a unified message or demonstrate that they are able to come together from all sides in opposition to Obama and the Democrats. This might not seem like a big issue right now since (as I said before) the midterm elections are over a year away, but problems like these left festering can come back to bite you in the future. In my opinion, the infighting and divided nature of the Republican party reminds me of the similar struggles that Democrats had in the 60's, 70's and ultimately coming to a head in the 80's. The new breed of Tea Party Conservative is clashing with the Establishment in such a way that currently sitting Republicans in office have to move out of the acceptable mainstream in order to win a primary. This drastic movement to the right prevents them from making the necessary move back to the center for the general election. This happened to Mitt Romney in 2012 and it can certainly happen in 2014 and beyond. I will go into the current state of the Republican party in another blog post. For now, rest assured that the divide between the Tea Party and the establishment will cost Republicans elections if they do not unify as Republicans against Democrats.
3. Hillary Clinton is making Republicans feel defeated already
Pretty much from the day Hillary Rodham Clinton left her job as Secretary of State under President Obama, everyone in the political sphere has pretty much concluded that she is GOING to run for President in 2016. Even though she's avoided answering the all-encompassing question since she left the Obama administration, that hasn't stopped commentators on both sides of the aisle pushing her likelihood of re-running for the White House This assumed inevitability has led to a wave of defeatist feelings in some parts of the Republican sphere. For example, Newt Gingrich has gone on record saying that Clinton would be a very formidable opponent in a general election. However, the most telling example comes from Myra Adams (a lifelong Republican) at The Daily Beast. She wrote up an article explaining 16 reasons why Clinton will win in 2016. While she laments the fact that she feels the urge to write up her list, she nevertheless has done it. You can read her full article here: 16 Reasons Why Hillary Clinton Will Win 2016. While I don't like the amount of inevitability people are lending to a Hillary 2016 run, I can't deny that it's having an impact among Republicans. It almost worries me to think what will happen if she does decide to run. Will she just demolish all competition in her way, or will she actually face a good fight along the way? With Chris Christie still unclear on what he plans to do, Clinton is maintaining a strong lead against all other potential challengers regardless of party in early polling. There's plenty of time between now and decision time for running for president, but as of right now Republicans are already dreading a Hillary Clinton run.
To me, politics is all about stories and deep intriguing storylines that have many different threads and points of view regarding the directions this country is taking. Out of those many storylines come larger narratives that tell a story over time regarding different issues. I might have found 3 narratives that are incredibly interesting to me right now, but there are so many more stories and events out there that are worth reading into. Hopefully you will find something in the realm of politics that interests you, and maybe what I have to say will interest you as well.
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